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African Conflict & Sustainable Development

 

The following is taken from Center for Strategic & International Studies
Document
A Report of the CSIS Program on
Crisis, Conflict, and Cooperation
October 2014

Africa is the continent with the highest concentration of countries that are affected by violence and conflict and that appear regularly on lists of fragile states. CSIS senior fellow Robert D. Lamb sat down with Africa Program deputy director Richard Downie to talk about the conflicts and crises Africa is likely to face in the future and how the United States has positioned itself to deal with those challenges.

In Angola, the United States played an unhelpful role in prolonging the civil war through its continued support for U.N.I.T.A. [the National Union for the Total  Independence of Angola]. But elsewhere, it’s played a constructive diplomatic role, helping negotiate an end to conflicts in South Africa, Namibia, and Mozambique. This region—Zimbabwe aside—has for the past two decades been by far the most stable region of Africa.

China’s influence in Africa has been a net positive, actually, providing Africans with much-needed infrastructure and increased opportunities for trade and investment. At the same time, China’s avowed policy of noninterference in domestic politics has meant it’s been willing to do business with some of the continent’s most corrupt, authoritarian regimes, such as those in Sudan, Angola, and Zimbabwe. This has been a boon for incumbent autocrats. But it’s hard to make the case that China has directly fueled conflict and extremism in Africa. It shares with the United States an interest in peace and stability, and conflict threatens its business interests, in places like South Sudan, for instance. As its ties in Africa get deeper, China’s doctrine of noninterference is going to come under more strain.

China does limit U.S. influence in Africa although not to the extent commonly portrayed in the media mainly by offering itself as an alternative suitor to African governments who have no interest in heeding U.S. advice on promoting democracy and good governance.

There are two big, intractable problems that have implications for security in the region. The first is poor governance, which continues to blight a number of [African] countries. Indeed, that number has increased in recent years, reversing some of the positive progress made in the 1990s and early 2000s. One particular manifestation of this problem is leaders who remove constitutional term limits. By altering, or threatening to alter, constitutions in order to stay in office, leaders like Yoweri Museveni of Uganda and Blaise Compaoré of Burkina Faso undermine their nations’ institutions and run the risk that opposition to their incumbency will take on increasingly desperate, even violent, forms.

The second big problem is the lack of viable African security institutions to respond to conflict in a timely, professional manner. The continent currently lacks political leaders with the skill and vision to take ownership of the issue and produce models for a homegrown and financially sustainable African security architecture.

In July 2014, former UK foreign secretary William Hague described a turbulent global landscape as one not simply experiencing a series of regular disruptions; instead, he suggested that the world was suffering from “systemic disorder.” In a similar vein, former U.S. national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski characterized the environment as “historically unprecedented in the sense that simultaneously, huge swaths of global territory are dominated by populist unrest, anger, loss of state control.

Indeed, every day seems to bring news of emerging crises and deeper chaos, with few signs the world’s troubles are abating. China’s assertive posture in Asia has the neighbors scrambling to bolster their armed forces, reinforce territorial claims, and buttress relations with the United States. Russia’s confrontation with Ukraine and NATO holds the prospects of conflict in Europe. A worsening in one or both of these regions could herald a new economic downturn worldwide.Beginning in North Africa in late 2010, the Arab Spring offered the promise of economic opportunity, justice, and self rule. But four years later, the region has more often witnessed despair, economic paralysis, and violence. The players include countless militias, insurgents, terrorists, government security services, and political factions all contesting control of territory, populations, and resources. The integrity of Libya, Syria, and Iraq are in serious jeopardy at the same time insurgent groups like ISIS are surging in influence and capability and in some places governing as a state.

At the heart of this turmoil are two distinct but related phenomena. States are less able or willing to exercise power and authority over their people, territory, and (shrinking) resources, while actors at the sub state level are simultaneously wielding greater capabilities than ever before. This is not a new state of affairs, but the trend has worsened sharply over the past year. Incompetent or corrupt regimes are failing to provide basic services and opportunity to their populations. Filling that void are ethnic- or sectarian based groups and sophisticated criminal gangs that are not only supplanting traditional government roles but challenging states on the battle field. The ongoing confrontation between ISIS and several powerful nations bears witness to this reality.

Caught in the middle are millions of citizens with scant economic opportunities, security, and little control over their own lives. With their own governments often at fault, many people look to alternative sources of authority and service provision. Violent extremist groups offer a respite for those seeking relief, along with a promise of empowerment and even revenge very appealing choices for many individuals in this environment, given their lack of other options.

Despite the strong desire by many to avoid these cofounding problems, there is little doubt that the United States will remain deeply engaged in finding solutions. The prospects for continued violence, radicalization, and global “systemic disorder” appear to be very strong, and the United States and its partners must prepare themselves for a rough ride ahead.

At the end of the Cold War, humanitarian assistance by civilian aid workers to alleviate suffering evolved into “humanitarian intervention.” This dramatic shift in conflict from interstate wars, which declined during the last decade of the twentieth century, to intrastate conflicts arising from weak and fragile states tested the capacity of both civilian and military agencies to find appropriate responses to the dual crises of human suffering and bad governance.

Urban growth was rapid over the course of the twentieth century, and it will continue to advance quickly over the next 20 years. The overall world population reached 7.3 billion people in 2014 and is projected to exceed 8.3 billion by 2030. Notwithstanding its scale, this rate of population growth will not match the projected scale of urban growth over the same period: urban populations will grow from 3.8 billion in 2014 to more than 5 billion in 2030. Most of this growth will occur in Asia and Africa.

Every year, millions of men, women, and children relocate to periurban spaces. The newly urbanized commonly find themselves forced to live in the most insecure spaces, such as along the edges of ravines, on flood prone streambeds, on unstable slopes, or in slums and shantytowns so densely populated that they become marked with ignominious titles such as Lagos’s “Face Me, I Face You” complexes. The speed and nonuniformity of this migration overwhelms existing urban infrastructure and service provision capacities, generating interrelated negative social, health, and economic externalities. The severity of this insecurity is nowhere more apparent than for the 930 million inhabitants in developing countries, specifically in sub-Saharan Africa, who live in a slum.

Organized crime and the potential for violence from terrorist or insurgent networks pose a further challenge to human security in quickly urbanizing environments. Problems found in mega cities economic disparity and high unemployment make them a prime breeding ground for violent non state actors. Many fear the sheer size of these cities will allow criminal groups to flourish undetected by local government or legal authorities. The absence of rule of law and basic services has the potential to provide safe haven to organized criminals, insurgents, and other violent non state actors.

Transnational criminal organizations corrupt and intimidate governments and facilitate illicit trafficking, which makes them one of the more pernicious non state actors. UNODC emphasizes in its 2013 West African Threat Assessment that underserved communities particularly those in border areas can profit from the flow of contraband, “leading them further and further from the reach of the state.”

Livelihoods that benefit from governance vacuums are unsustainable but usually preferable to poverty. Those involved in illicit trade are willing to defend themselves violently when their livelihoods are threatened whether by the state or by rivals. To make matters worse, wealth accrued through illicit trafficking is often sufficient to buy cooperation from high levels of government, meaning corruption is both enabled by and an enabler of organized crime.

Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa are still experiencing a new kind of threat as stateless armies of criminal actors threaten the peace and security of many countries. In 2014, we still face the problem of accepting how long it takes to build strong institutions, grow civil society, and restore economic growth. Foreign assistance budgets are developed in five year bundles, yet reality tells us that state building is a 20 year task at a minimum. A generation is usually needed to see the results of stabilization and institution building, yet the high level of demand for the immediate resolution of conflict, often characterized by impatience and quick fixes, checking a box on a “to-do” list, fails to create a genuine understanding of how any short-term development interventions support a path to national development and a return to stable governance.

The rapid changes and instability emergent today require a comprehensive and effective response that brings people together to resolve differences peacefully and strengthens their ability to better overcome future potential conflict or strife.

I would like to focus here in conclusion, on two sub- Saharan African countries  that have overcome some  challenges and made some progress towards a modern democratic civil society. South Africa & Zimbabwe have enormous natural resources some of which contribute to their GDP and also a revenue stream for the government which can be further strengthened with bilateral trade agreements with their trading partners. Both countries share a common history in that they have had precolonization and colonization and are now in the third stage of their history which is post colonization.

The countries share a border and there is a certain amount of commonality with the challenges that they face moving into the Twenty First Century. South Africa & Zimbabwe are both part of the South African Development Community and the African Union. Ideally for progress to happen and for them to reach their full potential, truth, trust and transparency in government are paramount. Sustainable development that is part of a transformative state requires a collaborative and consultative approach with all of the stakeholders. There are many real challenges ahead, some of which were addressed in the Millennium Development Goals. The Sustainable Development Goals have continued the MDGs and also focus on future remaining challenges.

Governments can to be proactive regarding matters such as health, education, employment, infrastructure, gender equality, food security, population growth, structural reforms(whether they are regulatory, or institutional, or political, or fiscal, or social) and climate change, which will benefit the current citizens and future generations. It also is the duty and responsibility of foreign governments to work with these two countries to establish mutually beneficial relationships that benefit the citizens.

The proactive approach that government needs to address with structural reform is highlighted by a 2012 report by KPMG (http://www.kpmg.com/Africa/en/IssuesAndInsights/Articles-Publications/Press-Releases/Documents/Africa%20Fraud%20Barometer%20June%202012.pdf ) where it claims ” Nigeria, Kenya, Zimbabwe and South Africa make up 74 percent of all fraud cases reported in Africa. While fewer cases are reported in South Africa, the overall value of these cases is far greater in Nigeria”.

The writer welcomes and feedback and or ideas regarding the subject and appreciates the work that C.S.I.S. carries out and the contribution that is makes globally.

Zimbabwe Challenges

https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/03/ominous-warning-signs-resurface-in-zimbabwe/

Ominous Warning Signs Resurface

in Zimbabwe

Ominous Warning Signs Resurface in Zimbabwe

The southern African nation of Zimbabwe has fallen off the international radar screen in recent years, but alarm bells should be ringing loud and clear. Over the course of the past few months, we have witnessed an ominous series of warning signs: bitter political infighting within the country’s ruling party, the worsening of already deplorable economic conditions, the abduction and disappearance of a prominent human rights activist, and a surge of inflammatory rhetoric and political violence. According to a report by the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, these are all telltale signs of growing atrocity risk — and precisely why the United States, and its allies, must wake up and take a proactive stand.

Political violence has long shaped the landscape of Zimbabwe, home to an estimated 14 million people. After a bloody liberation struggle against British colonial rule, Robert Mugabe, the only head of state Zimbabwe has ever known, spoke of reconciliation, peace, and social cohesion at independence in 1980. Mugabe’s words, however, brazenly belied the reality on the ground. Wartime emergency measures were kept in place, and we now know that plans for massacres against the Ndebele people in Midlands and Matabeleland provinces — what would later be known as Gukurahundi — were well underway. This calculated campaign of terror against an ethnic minority, executed with assistance from North Korea, was a key component of Mugabe’s plan to eliminate any opposition to his Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF). This scorched-earth campaign left at least 20,000 people dead and thousands more displaced. Thirty years later, no one has been held accountable, and the perpetrators remain in positions of power.

For a brief moment during Zimbabwe’s coalition government, from 2009-2013, the situation seemed as if it might be improving. The shattered economy stabilized and slowly began to recover, political space re-opened, and the most blatant forms of state-sponsored aggression declined. In reality, however, ZANU-PF and Mugabe were merely adjusting their tactics: Instead of physically assaulting opposition leaders in front of TV cameras, they undermined their influence through manipulation of the courts; instead of firebombing newspapers, they quietly intimidated the media and civil society activists; instead of beating up and maiming opposition supporters, they craftily rigged the polls to win the vote in July 2013. This more subtle approach worked, even leading to a softening of European sanctions earlier this year.

Over the past several months, however, the mood in Zimbabwe has markedly changed.

On March 9, prominent human rights defender Itai Dzamara was abducted in broad daylight. Diplomats claim that his disappearance bears all the hallmarks of an operation by Zimbabwe’s intelligence services, which has long operated with impunity under the direction of Mugabe and his security chiefs. More than two months later, Dzamara remains missing. Not only have the police ignored a High Court judgment, which ordered them to provide bi-weekly updates on the investigation and search for Dzamara, but a government minister went so far as to suggest that Dzamara staged his own disappearance.

Dzamara’s abduction is not an isolated incident. Zimbabwe’s history is replete with examples of human rights and opposition political activists who have been abducted, tortured, forcibly disappeared, or murdered by state agents. Most recently, on April 26, ruling party operatives publicly assaulted six traditional leaders at a campaign rally in Mashonaland, in full view of the police, for supporting an independent candidate running for local office. Two of the headmen have been reported missing by the local press.

The recent uptick of incendiary rhetoric espoused by leaders in ZANU-PF has also raised red flags. Last month, for example, Zimbabwe’s current Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa, while on a campaign stop in Midlands, likened Zimbabwe’s political opposition, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), to Satan, announcing to the crowd “we have come to cleanse you of the sins of the MDC.” Importantly, Mnangagwa — who is also minister of justice and the most likely successor to the 91-year-old Mugabe — was a chief architect of Gukurahundi as then-minister of defense.

This type of dog-whistle rhetoric — including from Mugabe himself — is eerily reminiscent of Zimbabwe’s dark past. The ethnically-charged words are strategically chosen: meant to strike fear in the hearts and minds of would-be voters, but also to send a clear warning to those in ZANU-PF who might challenge Mugabe’s authority. In December 2014, for example, during the height of a frenzied intraparty struggle for power, Zimbabwe’s longtime vice president and liberation war hero Joice Mujuru — nicknamed “Spill Blood” — was ousted after allegations that she had planned to assassinate Mugabe. To date, Mujuru has maintained that the accusation is false and many observers, both inside Zimbabwe and out, believe the smear campaign was part of a more sinister plot to neutralize a political rival who had been gaining popularity.

Even prior to this latest incident, Mujuru knew full well the ramifications of crossing Mugabe and ZANU-PF, whether intentional or perceived. Her late husband, Solomon Mujuru, a highly revered figure in Zimbabwe’s liberation struggle and former defense minister, was killed in an eerily suspicious house fire in 2011. Following Joice Mujuru’s political demise this past year, the first lady of Zimbabwe and current chairwoman of the ZANU-PF Women’s League, Grace Mugabe, declared that if Mujuru were killed, “dogs and fleas would not disturb her carcass.”

In Zimbabwe, this type of odious rhetoric has often coincided with political violence: It was a common tactic deployed during land invasions in the early 2000s, during a forced “urban clearance campaign” in 2005, and exemplified by targeted political attacks during and after the 2008 election period, when Robert Mugabe lost a first round but then unleashed a cascade of violence to force the opposition to withdraw.

The latest developments in Zimbabwe come at a time when the country’s economy is again collapsing and the political elite are tearing themselves apart in a battle for succession. Monitors of mass atrocity risk typically watch for ethnic exclusion, hate speech, and indicators of political and economic stress. The greatest indicator of a country’s atrocity risk is whether it has suffered from similar events in the past. All of these factors are currently, and ominously, present in Zimbabwe.

This is a dangerous moment for the citizens of Zimbabwe, and for the southern African region writ large.

This is a dangerous moment for the citizens of Zimbabwe, and for the southern African region writ large. The United States government recently dispatched a delegation, including one of the State Department’s top human rights officials, to Harare. But the Obama administration will need to keep a keen and close eye on the ongoing events in Zimbabwe, including tasking the intelligence services for an assessment of the potential for mass violence. This should include elevating the issue of Zimbabwe to the president’s Atrocities Prevention Board, which can readily address the early warning indicators of mass atrocities that currently prevail. Just as important, authorities in the capital, Harare, must know that the world is watching. Preventative steps must be taken now by engaging with the African Union (which Mugabe currently chairs), other African heads of state, as well as the United Nations Security Council to dissuade the Mugabe government from going down this tragic road once again.

Mugabe and his inner circle of ZANU-PF loyalists must also understand that those who continue to commit violence against their own people will ultimately be held accountable. The United States and its allies should make it profoundly clear, both publicly and in private, that visa bans, asset seizures, and even war crimes prosecutions are all viable policy options that remain on the table.

Jekesai Njikizana/AFP/Getty Images

Addressing Change in South Africa

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Effective Solutions in Urbanization & Metropolitanization

 

Let us ask the question, what opportunities are being created for the citizens of South Africa to be part of the economic growth in Sub Saharan Africa between now and 2030. In 1994 there was real change that has slowly stalled and now the hopes and dreams of many millions of citizens have turned into the shattered reality of the current situation. According to a recent McKinsey report urbanization is confused with improved quality of life and that at least 72% of Africans live in cities, live in slums.

There has been a growing global trend for rural inhabitants to move away and into urban areas for various reasons such as and not limited to better access to employment, health and education services and an improved standard of living. If we are to see this trend in Africa, then surely it would be prudent for urban planners and other government departments to provide real solutions for the urban populations. Infrastructure development and the allocation today of a percentage of GDP towards education and health services, water and sanitation would be a start.

Let’s take agriculture as a case in point: According to the International Fund for Agricultural Development, there are 500 million smallholder farmers in the world. Smallholder farmers provide up to 80 percent of the food supply in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.  And about two-thirds of the 1.2 billion people now surviving on US$1.25 a day or less live in rural areas that are largely dependent on small-scale agriculture. Can we improve the education of these farmers and lift their production rate without placing strain on the environment and the ecosystem and in doing so lift their standard of living through an increase in wages/income.

Now if our estimated global population growth trajectory is accurate the global population will be around nine billion by 2030 (estimated by others to be 2050) and Africa will double by 2050. There are benefits for government in taking a proactive stance in policy making and in planning for the tomorrow with effective solutions. In many cases, these farmers can double their productivity and output together with their income, through access to tools and technology available today within the private sector. More importantly, by improving smallholder farmer productivity and their access to markets by working with the private sector, incomes will be generated and will go a long way to solving poverty.

In a previous article I made mention of the South African National Development Plan and I would like to focus here again on this plan. If we look at independent data, the projected population by 2030 of South Africa will be 66,000,000. The current estimated population of South Africa is 52,900,000 and so there must be effective planning undertaken by the current and by successive governments if we are to see an improvement in the standard of living for the citizens of South Africa.

One example here to review is that of Gauteng, one of the nine provinces, that currently has a population of approximately 12,500,000 people and it is estimated that by 2050 that figure will rise to 23,100,000 people. This province has the highest density ranking and so I have highlighted it here as it will have the greatest demands in addressing the MDGs. Increasing the affordability and access to quality education is an effective solution to alleviating poverty and this must be a priority for government for this province.

Gauteng produces approximately 10% of the total GDP of Sub Saharan Africa and yet has 8.4% of residents aged 20 and over have received no schooling, 11.2% have had some primary, 5.5% have completed only primary school, 34.3% have had some high education, 28.0% have finished only high school, and 12.6% have an education higher than the high school level. Overall, 40.6% of residents have completed high school, 25.8% of the population aged 15–65 is unemployed.

From these figures one can see that the lack of education is evident and it is a belief, widely held by educational academics, that education is one way of alleviating poverty – median annual income of working adults aged 15–65 is R 23 539 ($3,483). Males have a median annual income of R 24 977 ($3,696) versus R 20 838 ($3,083) for females. I will use just one example below to highlight the point of the correlation between lack of education, poverty and the standard of living.

Alexandra, Gauteng, with a population of 166,000. However, some estimates place the number closer to 470,000 as the population has grown after the fall of apartheid and the rise of people seeking jobs as immigration from other parts of Africa is on the rise. Alexandra is located northeast of the Johannesburg city center situated on the Jukskei River and covers 8 square kilometers. Originally planned to be a vibrant community this area turned into low-income developments with 7,500 formal homes and roughly 20,000 shacks. The people and their plight is something we do not think of when simple things such as electricity and plumbing is common to us, but relatively uncommon to those who reside in the slums.

According to UN-Habitat, besides Johannesburg, Gauteng comprises Pretoria, Vereeniging, Benoni, Krugersdorp and their surrounding areas, with a total of 23 municipalities  and is the headquarters for most of South Africa’s large corporations, banks and other financial and business activities. It is estimated that by 2020, Gauteng will be an urban region of 20 million people. It would make sense that government and non-government leaders huddle and make plans for the future, to bring about real and effective social change through the improvement and access to quality education for the citizens of this province.

Likewise, the other provinces could review and adopt the same or a similar model of providing this and other services, but for this article it is education which is the focus. In 2015, the urban slum population in Africa is likely to reach 332 million. There are other societal benefits for addressing population growth and the rural migration to urban areas and improving the standard of living through education, such as a stabilizing and or the reduction in the crime rate. South African homicide rates remain exceptionally high – higher than any other country that submits crime statistics to Interpol. A SAPS performance report reveals that over 21,400 cases of murder, nearly 540,000 cases of rape and over 116,700 cases of serious robbery were recorded in 2000/2001.

Increasing youth crime has serious implications, particularly in Africa where over two thirds of many cities’ populations are between the ages of 12 and 25. Most of these young people live in informal settlements without basic facilities, services and security. South Africa has one of the highest rates of violence against women in the world. Tackling these challenges will not be an easy task, and it will require good governance and transparency to bring about the required change. Corruption is pervasive in Africa and a previous article reviewed the KPMG report into South African fraud and corruption which is now systemic in government.

Equitable quality learning is one way to bring about this change. Skills are the key way in which education reduces poverty. Education makes it more likely for men and women not just to be employed, but to hold jobs that are more secure and provide good working conditions and decent pay. In so doing, education can not only help lift households out of poverty, but also guard against them falling – or falling back – into poverty. Low quality education reinforces this problem, as parents are less willing to bear those costs if they cannot see the benefits of education.

Demographic change has a profound impact on the direction of public policy and the development of a country. As the population increases nationally and or provincially, policymakers will be compelled to meet the service needs of a larger population in areas like healthcare, education, employment or basic infrastructure needs. The importance of aligning policy planning to cover all possibilities and contingencies cannot be overemphasized in the current context in South Africa.

Understanding the dynamics of population change and by government adopting and implementing policy that is proactive in its approach to the challenge of Urbanization & Metropolitanization, South Africa will move towards a better tomorrow for all of its citizens.

“Children of today are the leaders of tomorrow and education is a very important weapon to prepare children for their future roles as leaders of the community”. Nelson Mandela

 

 

Dystopia – THE GREAT GLOBAL BACKLASH



1984 
Today

Delusion Fields

When Eric Arthur Blair wrote the novel 1984 he cemented himself into the Twentieth Century as one of the great writers.

It is now 2014, some thirty years from the date that was the title for this work and one has to ask the question:

Is life imitating art ?

There are some other examples of this frightening world that we live in today, such as Brave New World, Blade Runner and Soylent Green, to name a few. To reflect upon these works specifically Nineteen Eighty Four, one is left with very strong mixed emotions regarding our current situation and where we may be positioned as a species in another thirty years. Our Western culture is one of hedonistic narcissistic overindulgences and self gratification, whereby, through an insatiable appetite for consuming the latest product and or service in pathetic attempts to achieve a satisfactory level of being satiated, in a lifestyle that is shallow, false and unsustainable, we are left highly dependent upon technology and over medicated in a regime of anti-oxidant, multi-vitamin & anti-depressant pills.

The golden utopia of tomorrow is what we are spoon fed via the intravenous drip that is attached to us twenty four seven and is our pager, cell phone, tablet, laptop or flatscreen television. We gossip and discuss the most insignificant details about some individual who has randomly floated to the surface and been portrayed as a unique human, and we do this for five seconds before we dump them for the next person and or gadget. Terms such as retail therapy in our spiritual quest for happiness and the meaning of life we have accepted and made to be our best friend.

Yesterday, BTW we downloaded the latest widget that is available to us for 99 cents so that we can have a more functional easier life 24/7 but let us not get carried away here for we need to keep this post in a KISS format. CCTV for security and peace of mind so that in the event that we are raped, robbed or murdered, the authorities can peruse the footage before it goes viral on Youtube or Instagram or becomes a Tweet and maybe, just maybe goes to trial. What a sad day it is when Blade Runner is a world wide televised court room scene in the Republic of South Africa involving the manslaughter or murder of a young woman.

If we are to look at our world today and describe it in one word what one word would that be ?

LeMagasinDesSuicides

The writers preference here is Hamartia as a description for the whole tragic situation and current state of affairs. The disturbing truth about describing our world today in this one word, is that it is so, through a calculated deliberate set of circumstances and not through some comedy of human errors. The tragedy is that we have become what we have become and we are left to surf this wild steep trajectory of the Twenty First Century with no social backbone of reform and we place our hopes and dreams into the hands of tyrants and technology.

When Nineteen Eighty Four was first published 1949 circa, the Great Depression and World War Two had occurred and we humans set about building a better tomorrow. Somehow we have lost the plot in where we have allowed ourselves to wander and now we are most certainly lost. Aristotle wrote about this Hamartia as a tragic flaw and indeed we humans are flawed and our history proves how vicious, complex and self absorbed we truly are as a species. Brother against brother and state against state as we live in a morally bankrupt modern world and the welfare of man is in a state of eternal conflict.

How then does the world become balanced again and move away from the dystopia that currently exists. If human beings are truly to become evolved, if we are truly to move towards a global self actualisation, then what cathartic exercises do we need to undergo or to religiously follow. The dumbing down of society has been an ongoing well orchestrated highly successful execution of oppression and population control by multi-generational power brokers from both church and state. The proletariat, us mere mortal folk who are the modern serfs, require a long term plan of strategic moves in a R evolution to take back our future and our children’s tomorrow.

 The Great Global Backlash

Nouriel Roubini |

Anaemic economic recovery has given populist parties

an opening to blame foreign trade and foreign workers

“In the immediate aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, policymakers’ success in preventing the Great Recession from turning into Great Depression II held in check demands for protectionist and inward-looking measures. But now the backlash against globalization—and the freer movement of goods, services, capital, labour, and technology that came with it—has arrived. This new nationalism takes different economic forms: trade barriers, asset protection, reaction against foreign direct investment, policies favouring domestic workers and firms, anti-immigration measures, state capitalism, and resource nationalism. In the political realm, populist, anti-globalization, anti-immigration, and in some cases outright racist and anti-Semitic parties are on the rise. These forces loath the alphabet soup of supra-national governance institutions—EU (European Union), UN (United Nations), WTO (World Trade Organization), and IMF (International Monetary Fund), among others—that globalization requires. Even the Internet, the epitome of globalization for the past two decades, is at risk of being balkanized as more authoritarian countries—including China, Iran, Turkey, and Russia—seek to restrict access to social media and crack down on free expression”.

One does not need to be violent or to wage a war against government and state. If we are truly to move forward towards a better world with equality and sustainability, then we simple ordinary citizens need to unite together as one mob, with one voice to achieve our one objective, in the utopia that we deserve and can truly create. Presently we are a fractured fragile 7,300,000,000 mob of sheep that are just surviving and when we can become a well rehearsed finely tuned and well honed collective, we shall then, not just survive, but, we shall truly live.

Freedom Liberty Egalitarian

Live it love it life… 

Conflict Cocktail Compositions

Conflict

Image

Click here – http://youtu.be/Lk7BWjMEMHw – to listen and read

The history of the human species reveals that we are only ever two things and these are constructive and destructive.

There are many references to these two sides of human nature that are found throughout literature and the Bible has many examples of these. There are many opposites…sun & moon, positive & negative, war & peace, black & white, red & green, up and down and many others inclusive of life & death. We’re born & we die, it is as simple as that…in between of course there is cabaret.

Conflict has existed since the beginning or our time here on Earth and will continue till that day when it finally ends.

To briefly look at where we are today and where we humans possible will be at the end of this first quarter of the Twenty First Century the writer recommends the reader to look at modern history in two writers from France & England. There are other writers, and more modern and ancient history that one can review, in an attempt to understand where we are at today and how we got to this point in our timeline.

Click here –  http://youtu.be/GRxofEmo3HA  – to listen & read

 

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The condition of man… is a condition of war of everyone against everyone. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Hobbes

We are born weak, we need strength; helpless, we need aid; foolish, we need reason. All that we lack at birth, all that we need when we come to man’s estate, is the gift of education. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Jacques_Rousseau

 ‘ One Hundred Years of War ‘ – http://www4.samford.edu/belltower/031313/boyatt.php  

One questions the past century and the trajectory that we are currently on which was set in the latter half circa 1950-2000.

 

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The slow evolution of the human species and have we moved forward towards a better tomorrow ?

2000-2025

In his book Strategic Vision – America and the Crisis of Global Power ‘ Zbigniew Brzenzinski argues that America can and should be actively engaged in navigating this period of crisis. The book seeks to outline the needed strategic vision, looking beyond 2025. There are other matters that both Brzezinski and the writer of this post have not explored in detail. These other matters are of concern and are not limited to these three – Population Growth, Climate Change, Sustainable Development

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ym8JjY4fy-M&feature=share&list=PLnQH3w6MZnkhbFd9irW9UsGQm0pJocZsJ&index=2

 

The World After America : By 2025, Not Chinese but Chaotic

Unlike the failed twentieth-century aspirants to world power, China’s international posture is at this stage neither revolutionary nor messianic nor Manichean. China thus seems to understand–and its investments in America’s well-being speak louder than words because they are based on self-interest–that a rapid decline of America’s global primacy would produce a global crisis that could devastate China’s own well-being and damage its long-range prospects. Prudence and patience are part of China’s imperial DNA.

Deng Xiaoping’s famous maxim “Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capabilities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile, and never claim leadership.”

Sun Tzu – the wisest posture in combat is to lay back, let one’s opponent make fatal mistakes, and only then capitalise on them. 

 

Deng Xiaoping took China from Mao to Today.  

Brzezinski does conclude that ” since America is not yet Rome and China is not yet its Byzantium, a stable global order ultimately depends on America’s ability to renew itself and to act wisely as the promoter and conciliator of a rising new East. 

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China has cemented itself in Africa with such dexterity that the foundations have cured for a strong and continued ‘mutually beneficial’ relationship based upon infrastructure for resources. There is a trade off here because this relationship between China & Africa is based upon this business model that is not ‘apples for apples’, but it has worked thus far. Whoever runs Africa this decade rules the world in the next…this statement may not be historically accurate, but the idea is understood.

The change that is required to sail through the difficult uncharted waters in tomorrow was required yesterday.The uncharted waters are not a reference to 2050, this is a reference to the next five years specifically and the remainder of Q1 of the 21st Century. Sustainable development is vital if we are to survive into the next centuries. Sustainability of our species is not possible on the current trajectory and there are major global challenges ahead.

How do we fight poverty ? Okay that is not easily answered because as we assist those who live in poverty to move into the middle class, they then contribute to a larger carbon footprint as consumers. America has tried to slow the growth of China by saying that the Chinese must reform and address the MDGs without contributing to global pollution – e.g. not to use fossil fuels for the generation of electricity etc.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/religion/6309792/God-creation-science-religion-the-conflicts.html

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Which Course of Course

Old habits die hard as they say and one wonders if we can in fact change our course. At present the world is sailing with a lee shore (lee shores are dangerous to water craft because, if left to drift, they will be pushed into shore by the wind, possibly running aground) and that if we do not or can not change the consequences are catastrophic.

But which course to take ? A responsible government has a thinking society…that would be a very good place to start. 

Over the past fifty years the communication age taught consumers what to consume, how and why to consume. 

What symphony can the world write to sooth our troubles. This conflict cocktail composition that we’re intoxicated from is merely because the welfare of man is in an eternal state of conflict. 

May we all drink clean cool water from now on…I’m thirsty and is there any left ?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Transformative Tyranny (Tyrannosaurus rex ) Terror

Transformative

Tyranny (Tyrannosaurus rex ) Terror

schleich-trex

To change in form, appearance, or structure; metamorphose.

The government or rule of a tyrant or absolute ruler.

Any period of frightful violence or bloodshed

likened to the Reign of Terror in France.

Tyrannosaurus Rex  –  A large, carnivorous dinosaur that walked on two legs. 

Its name is from the Greek words meaning “tyrant” and “lizard”and the Latin word for “king.”

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The African Union has member states which comprise Saharan and Sub Saharan countries – http://www.au.int/en/member_states/countryprofiles

( no guarantee accuracy of information )

The history of African countries can be divided into three periods.

Pre Colonisation – Colonisation – Decolonisation.

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During the Scramble for Africa in the late nineteenth century, Western European powers divided Africa and its resources into political partitions at the Berlin Conference of 1884-85. By 1905, control of almost all African soil was claimed by Western European governments, with the only exceptions being Liberia (which had been settled by African-American former slaves) and Ethiopia (which had successfully resisted colonization by Italy). Britain and France had the largest holdings, but GermanySpainItalyBelgium, andPortugal also had colonies. As a result of colonialism and imperialism, Africa lost not only its sovereignty, but also control of its natural resources like gold and rubber. Europeans often justified this using the concept of the White Man’s Burden, an obligation to “civilize” the people of Africa.[citation needed]

Critics say that the process of African decolonization from the 1950s to the 1970s turned what were relatively well-ordered and peaceful territories administered by the efficient bureaucracies and legal traditions of the Western European empires into violent, inefficient and corrupt socialist dictatorships or right-wing family dictatorships with little regard for international rule of law and human rights and riddled with civilturf wars, barbaric political purges, mass refugee crises, famines and ethnic conflict.[2] –

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decolonization_of_Africa

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Decolonisation and a brief look at Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) post Mugabe 2014. It must be noted here that this is not a diatribe regarding either the country or the current leader of Zimbabwe.

It is a brief look at the future and there are several possible scenarios for Zimbabwe, from peaceful to armed conflict.

His Excellency Robert Gabriel Mugabe the President of Zimbabwe is the only president of Zimbabwe, since it gained independence from Britain in 1980.

Right now, two broad factions are thought to be jockeying for position. The moderates, led by vice-president Joyce Mujuru, dominate key positions within the party leadership and seem to have significant grassroots support. The hardliners, under the direction of perennial eminence grise Emmerson Mnangagwa (now the justice minister), have the advantage of ruthlessness and a tight grip on the all-important security services.

In July 2013 Zimbabwe held an election that saw the current ZANU-PF (Zimbabwe African National Union Patriotic Front) government retain power under the leadership of Mugabe. The opposition party MDC (Movement for Democratic Change) no longer has the possibility of being an effective opposition party, relegated to spending time lost in the political wilderness. There currently is no opposition party to the current government.  http://www.zanupf.org.zw/

H.E. R.G. Mugabe is about to turn 90 years of age in one month and whilst there are those who believe that he is mightier than Jesus Christ because we are still waiting for Christ’s return, Mugabe has died and been resurrected many times. We are mortal and there will come a time when the news will report the passing of ‘Cde Bob’. It is this period that is of concern to political analysts because of the ineffectiveness in Zimbabwe of the African Union & S.A.D.C.

The Republic of South Africa under the current Zuma government is facing an election this year and it is probable that the current government will not be retained. There are external influences that will not be discussed here because they are classified and not for general broadcast. These vested external influencing factors are far greater than the African Union and involve China, Russia & Brasil along with some other countries.

Currently there are far bigger global strategic defence issues that take a priority such as these examples – South China Seas, Syria, South Sudan, Egypt, Iraq and others not mentioned.

This year is the year to build bridges. The Western media portrays Zimbabwe in a certain way and we therefore have a preconceived notion of what the country is like. What do you know about Zimbabwe and have you ever visited the country ?

One questions why the Australian & American governments do not do more to reach out to Zimbabwe and to work in a collaborative and consultative approach to assist in the transition that will take place at some stage.

The are three ‘T’ words in the heading of this post which were used to gain attention and there are also three ‘T’ words that could have been selected…Truth, Trust & Transparency.

History will be the only way of knowing the future of Zimbabwe and H.E. R.G. Mugabe will be recorded as the freedom fighter who lead the country out of the colonial repression that existed under the Ian Smith government.

 

Water Security The Last Drop in Africa

The Last Drop In Security

When we are thirsty 

we go and turn on a tap usually to get ‘a glass of water’.

Back in the 1970’s outside of Europe it was glass bottles of Italian or French water that were available, usually only from an upmarket restaurant. Names like Perrier or Pellegrino come to mind and then through the 1980s other names appeared as Coca Cola, Pepsi and other companies released products into the marketplace.

 

Hikers, joggers, cyclists and children along with others

were seen through the 1990s with a plastic container close at hand.

Primary aquifers were drilled into and utilised for agriculture.

As these primary sources began to deplete, countries such as China and America drilled down into the secondary aquifers.

By the end of the 20th Century we began to hear more about climate change and water. 

With the current conflict in South Sudan, 

it would be worth the question. 

Has water got anything to do with this crisis ? 

It may not be as silly as it sounds. 

An old map only used to look at

general geographical information of the Nile

Egyptian and Sudanese plans to build an airstrip for bombing a dam in the Blue Nile River Gorge in Ethiopia.

The Egyptian and Sudanese governments denied the reports. 

Who Owns the Nile? Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia’s History-Changing Dam

Water is part of sustainable development. Water is also part of survival and for most urban dwellers in western society, clean safe water is just a tap or a plastic bottle away.

 In Africa however, water may not be that accessible and even if it is available

it may be a walk of some hours to obtain it and even then it may not be clean safe drinking water. 

Water security has become, not is going to be, a major concern.

Fresh Water Access & The Business of African Water

When land acquisition is for development the main categories are 

mining, agriculture or housing.

By 2013, international large-scale land transactions amounting to

46 million hectares had been successfully transacted worldwide.

Africa is the main target of these transactions: transactions accounting

for 50 percent* of the verified land deals have been reported in Africa. 

( 23 million hectares* )

 

If we consider the current estimated world population is 7,100,000,000* and that the estimated world population at the end of this decade is 7,717,000,000*

*figures sourced from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population

My estimates differ from the above prediction for 2020 as the exponential factors when applied have the figure of 7,777,777,777 in 2017 but for this blog I will go with what wiki provides.

The actual number is not the issue here, it is that there is an increase that is the important point.

 Water Shortages Threaten Global Security

This global population increase will be mainly from China, India and Africa. 

This blog has only included Africa here regarding water security. 

It also must be noted that this is a thin coverage of the topic and only makes an attempt to highlight water security for you the reader.